* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 49 55 70 76 71 59 53 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 49 55 70 76 63 39 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 44 50 62 72 61 38 30 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 4 5 8 9 21 29 37 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 20 32 8 308 207 194 187 223 223 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 171 171 169 171 171 171 168 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -50.5 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 8 11 9 10 7 9 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 83 81 79 75 68 60 56 54 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 21 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 56 56 45 41 56 77 85 80 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 100 105 79 57 104 130 136 107 70 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -9 -8 -5 0 -1 -5 2 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 311 308 304 302 266 137 -24 -105 -164 -139 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.6 17.3 19.3 21.3 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.0 99.0 100.1 101.2 102.9 104.1 104.4 104.2 104.1 104.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 5 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 65 58 61 63 67 58 48 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 13. 6. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 35. 41. 36. 24. 18. 12. 11. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##