* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 100 99 93 86 71 58 48 41 30 31 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 100 99 93 86 71 58 48 41 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 105 100 95 92 88 81 75 64 53 44 37 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 9 16 25 23 24 28 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 0 2 7 8 6 4 3 12 2 SHEAR DIR 261 188 166 176 197 211 232 223 241 247 253 239 249 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 147 147 146 142 135 132 131 129 126 122 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 67 64 59 52 52 49 50 51 54 56 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 34 34 33 35 33 31 30 30 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 83 83 95 100 102 95 87 81 71 60 25 33 67 200 MB DIV 119 134 97 109 86 85 90 71 25 -6 28 24 -23 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 4 3 6 7 11 12 19 13 -1 LAND (KM) 1364 1275 1187 1124 1061 947 855 834 880 999 1149 1289 1423 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.5 17.1 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.3 145.8 146.2 146.5 146.9 147.1 146.9 146.4 145.4 144.2 143.2 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 20 21 24 25 23 10 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -37. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -6. -12. -19. -34. -47. -57. -64. -75. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##