* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 58 65 80 80 62 57 54 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 58 65 80 80 51 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 50 57 65 79 83 53 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 3 6 9 14 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 29 5 276 210 192 196 206 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 170 169 170 171 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 79 75 70 65 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 18 22 17 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 57 50 43 69 79 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 97 75 81 115 137 155 104 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -13 -8 -5 0 1 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 339 332 335 320 316 228 73 -86 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.4 18.3 20.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.7 100.8 101.8 102.9 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 61 67 64 68 58 67 55 55 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 7. -12. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 25. 40. 40. 22. 17. 14. 11. 10. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##