* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 108 110 110 103 94 79 65 52 43 36 31 V (KT) LAND 105 106 108 110 110 103 94 79 65 52 43 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 105 105 105 104 102 97 89 76 63 51 42 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 2 4 5 12 14 21 22 21 21 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 4 7 8 7 9 8 7 5 SHEAR DIR 156 132 129 210 214 221 236 231 245 268 251 236 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 147 145 140 134 131 130 128 125 120 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 64 59 56 51 51 47 48 54 60 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 36 35 35 35 34 32 31 29 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 85 93 100 101 101 91 83 82 54 35 10 17 25 200 MB DIV 135 121 119 87 82 93 107 24 0 -3 33 21 3 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 8 16 18 11 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1292 1223 1153 1083 1015 898 841 850 916 1030 1177 1339 1523 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.5 16.1 17.5 19.1 20.6 21.8 22.8 24.1 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.3 145.8 146.2 146.5 146.8 147.1 147.1 146.7 146.1 145.2 144.0 142.8 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 18 6 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -21. -28. -33. -38. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. -2. -11. -26. -40. -53. -62. -69. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##