* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 78 84 93 92 80 72 66 62 58 55 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 78 84 93 92 51 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 64 75 86 97 110 107 59 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 8 8 16 28 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -4 -3 -2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 19 351 227 197 145 174 217 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 168 168 171 172 173 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 11 9 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 74 73 65 58 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 19 20 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 43 37 46 64 79 101 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 74 99 130 146 131 98 98 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -14 -11 -8 -3 0 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 364 372 351 307 192 29 -60 -230 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 17.1 19.0 21.5 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.9 101.0 102.1 103.0 103.8 104.7 104.9 104.7 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 70 66 68 67 59 43 57 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 30. 38. 37. 25. 17. 11. 7. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##