* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 106 105 102 94 76 64 53 46 35 25 15 V (KT) LAND 105 105 106 105 102 94 76 64 53 46 35 25 15 V (KT) LGE mod 105 105 103 101 97 87 73 59 49 41 34 27 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 8 9 18 25 22 17 20 28 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 0 1 5 3 8 5 7 15 11 7 SHEAR DIR 142 143 227 231 218 240 245 248 254 251 241 247 257 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 146 143 136 131 131 131 129 126 118 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 72 64 59 56 51 53 50 52 55 58 57 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 34 34 33 35 32 32 31 30 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 99 100 94 84 86 71 59 38 5 17 21 200 MB DIV 120 123 91 94 75 69 52 11 -11 16 33 -12 15 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 5 3 6 5 12 11 10 10 12 -14 LAND (KM) 1215 1135 1056 997 940 870 828 869 935 1033 1187 1412 1706 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.7 18.4 19.7 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.5 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.3 146.7 146.9 147.1 147.1 147.0 146.5 145.9 145.1 143.9 142.2 140.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 8 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 12 7 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -3. -11. -29. -41. -52. -59. -70. -80. -90. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##