* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 89 98 104 112 101 75 65 58 51 46 43 V (KT) LAND 70 79 89 98 104 112 86 50 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 84 98 111 122 128 96 53 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 6 12 13 11 24 31 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 229 223 193 178 187 197 219 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 169 170 170 172 172 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 69 60 53 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 24 25 27 20 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 39 50 64 74 101 113 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 100 138 140 131 136 73 107 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -7 -2 0 1 1 -5 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 364 347 322 284 262 148 -9 -148 -430 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 18.2 20.5 23.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.7 103.6 104.4 105.1 105.7 105.3 104.4 103.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 10 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 67 68 61 57 69 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 4. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 28. 34. 42. 31. 5. -5. -12. -19. -24. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##