* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 98 95 92 84 71 56 47 38 31 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 99 98 95 92 84 71 56 47 38 31 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 97 94 90 85 73 61 51 43 37 31 25 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 10 12 14 19 19 18 16 21 30 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 3 4 7 5 10 12 5 11 SHEAR DIR 197 225 238 229 234 244 239 247 255 232 245 234 298 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 145 141 136 131 130 130 130 125 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 66 62 56 52 52 51 47 47 48 50 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 33 33 34 32 29 28 27 27 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 93 94 93 89 83 87 85 54 53 23 -8 -26 -19 200 MB DIV 117 98 94 69 75 70 66 -7 -9 31 9 -2 -18 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 6 6 7 9 14 12 12 13 11 3 LAND (KM) 1162 1100 1039 979 922 851 856 900 960 1090 1309 1542 1808 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.8 17.2 18.6 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.4 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.4 146.6 146.8 147.0 147.1 146.7 146.2 145.7 144.6 142.7 140.8 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 23 24 25 22 10 6 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -29. -44. -53. -62. -69. -79. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##