* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 99 106 110 107 79 68 56 47 39 33 30 V (KT) LAND 80 90 99 106 110 107 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 93 105 115 119 112 65 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 12 8 18 25 37 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -5 -3 1 5 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 195 182 179 181 183 218 227 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.7 30.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 169 170 170 173 168 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 7 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 68 63 57 53 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 27 26 22 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 43 56 61 63 78 104 95 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 137 131 118 102 108 99 92 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 2 1 -9 -1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 327 316 291 255 72 -75 -330 -347 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.2 19.1 21.7 24.0 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.2 105.1 105.5 105.9 105.6 104.6 102.9 100.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 8 11 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 66 59 59 67 67 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -21. -22. -22. -21. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 26. 30. 27. -1. -12. -24. -33. -41. -47. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 85% is 6.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 85% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 85% is 16.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 85% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##