* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 90 89 87 75 63 50 44 33 29 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 92 90 89 87 75 63 50 44 33 29 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 86 82 78 67 56 47 39 33 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 10 11 22 19 17 12 25 34 30 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 3 3 5 4 11 3 7 3 12 SHEAR DIR 232 239 224 232 243 240 257 260 253 238 242 249 314 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 144 138 134 133 132 132 130 125 119 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 63 59 54 52 50 44 47 50 52 57 51 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 33 34 34 32 31 28 29 25 27 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 98 95 101 96 75 62 46 16 3 18 16 200 MB DIV 95 99 92 79 84 69 6 -7 7 29 28 -20 -33 700-850 TADV 6 7 5 5 6 10 19 12 13 7 8 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 1124 1071 1021 966 917 891 944 1015 1095 1232 1436 1646 1849 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.9 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.8 24.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.5 146.6 146.7 146.8 146.5 145.8 145.1 144.4 143.2 141.4 139.6 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 20 19 18 10 7 4 1 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. -1. -5. -4. -9. -7. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -20. -32. -45. -51. -62. -66. -76. -85. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##