* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 129 139 140 140 118 85 73 62 53 44 38 35 V (KT) LAND 115 129 139 140 140 88 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 115 131 140 143 138 88 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 8 6 8 9 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -3 -1 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 203 190 210 188 191 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 170 170 171 174 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 68 66 60 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 31 28 28 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 60 57 66 61 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 134 84 81 105 119 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 -3 -12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 320 294 228 147 -72 -389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.0 20.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.7 105.2 105.3 105.3 104.6 102.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 11 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 59 58 61 67 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -13. -17. -23. -27. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 15. 8. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 2. -9. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 14. 24. 25. 25. 3. -30. -42. -53. -62. -71. -77. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 87% is 6.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 87% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 87% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 87% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##