* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 90 86 82 65 52 44 33 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 92 90 86 82 65 52 44 33 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 87 82 76 62 50 41 34 29 24 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 18 23 27 18 17 22 36 39 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 3 2 1 9 6 3 7 9 7 SHEAR DIR 209 217 232 231 229 244 259 257 250 243 242 283 326 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 144 142 136 133 134 132 130 125 120 113 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 64 58 54 52 50 45 46 50 54 59 50 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 31 31 28 27 27 24 25 24 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 84 78 81 94 95 73 49 36 15 1 -1 3 -25 200 MB DIV 90 77 93 82 94 9 -36 -8 25 28 36 -13 -43 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 7 4 9 12 12 15 10 11 4 -6 LAND (KM) 1085 1028 976 942 915 932 974 1070 1207 1396 1642 1874 1726 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.5 146.6 146.5 146.5 146.0 145.5 144.6 143.4 141.8 139.7 137.7 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 6 6 7 9 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 20 19 14 8 6 1 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -13. -12. -12. -14. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -7. -9. -15. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -13. -30. -43. -51. -62. -69. -79. -91.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##