* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 155 161 158 144 103 77 62 51 44 36 30 28 V (KT) LAND 140 155 161 158 144 69 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 140 148 145 134 120 61 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 7 18 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 199 160 177 184 235 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 171 170 173 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 63 59 55 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 72 73 87 98 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 115 112 121 83 93 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 -2 -2 -7 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 292 260 150 58 -154 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.2 22.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 105.7 105.5 103.9 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 59 67 68 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -22. -30. -37. -45. -51. -55. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -16. -15. -13. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 15. 21. 21. 17. 7. -2. -7. -9. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. -1. -7. -23. -25. -25. -25. -25. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 15. 21. 18. 4. -37. -63. -78. -89. -96.-104.-110.-112. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 50.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##