* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 97 91 87 69 53 44 35 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 99 97 91 87 69 53 44 35 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 98 95 89 83 69 55 45 37 30 23 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 18 25 21 18 16 23 27 26 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 0 5 5 5 5 13 8 18 7 SHEAR DIR 216 223 226 235 247 255 248 255 243 246 261 335 339 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 143 141 137 135 134 131 128 122 116 110 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 52 52 49 44 46 47 49 50 44 43 36 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 30 32 29 26 26 24 24 18 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 87 90 95 96 89 76 60 44 11 -10 1 -3 -23 200 MB DIV 94 100 88 89 60 -7 -12 22 39 24 -11 -34 -22 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 5 10 14 12 14 12 12 6 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 1048 1014 985 961 943 980 1068 1178 1297 1498 1771 1826 1623 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.7 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.9 26.1 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.3 146.2 146.2 146.1 145.5 144.6 143.6 142.6 140.9 138.6 136.6 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 20 17 10 8 4 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -3. -7. -7. -9. -10. -18. -23. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -9. -13. -31. -47. -56. -65. -73. -86. -98.-108. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##