* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 175 190 187 166 139 92 63 46 36 32 24 20 20 V (KT) LAND 175 190 187 147 105 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 175 174 159 142 92 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 11 18 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 0 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 184 180 203 241 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 173 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 58 56 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 72 72 92 113 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 111 94 76 61 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -8 -8 -8 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 213 130 -6 -62 -361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.8 21.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.2 104.6 102.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 65 68 33 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -15. -21. -34. -47. -58. -68. -78. -86. -91. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -6. -12. -23. -22. -19. -16. -14. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 20. 28. 26. 19. 1. -13. -20. -21. -18. -17. -14. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -12. -20. -24. -26. -27. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 15. 12. -9. -36. -83.-112.-129.-139.-143.-151.-155.-155. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 60.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##