* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 99 92 83 62 47 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 104 99 92 83 62 47 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 98 91 83 65 51 41 33 26 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 20 27 29 25 20 21 29 27 31 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 4 4 3 8 11 11 17 7 SHEAR DIR 222 223 229 236 239 251 256 253 248 249 292 329 319 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 139 136 134 132 129 124 119 112 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 46 47 47 50 51 49 48 50 41 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 29 30 29 27 26 24 23 19 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 93 91 92 90 78 51 43 8 -18 -25 -11 -12 -23 200 MB DIV 106 79 72 48 22 -34 -17 47 32 18 -9 -23 -7 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 8 11 15 14 13 10 9 0 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 1008 993 982 988 999 1047 1133 1251 1423 1639 1875 1711 1483 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.7 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 146.0 145.9 145.7 145.4 144.8 144.0 143.0 141.6 139.8 137.8 135.9 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 17 12 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -37. -42. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -17. -17. -19. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -19. -23. -25. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -13. -22. -43. -58. -71. -80. -92.-103.-114.-124. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##