* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 175 174 163 139 112 73 53 41 34 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 175 174 138 94 65 39 31 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 175 165 130 89 61 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 13 17 28 34 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 6 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 216 211 217 232 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.3 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 174 170 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 58 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 20 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 71 86 92 110 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 64 80 102 105 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -8 -4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 240 93 -28 -107 -238 -411 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.6 19.9 21.4 22.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.3 105.0 104.2 103.4 101.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 62 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -15. -21. -35. -48. -59. -69. -79. -87. -92. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -15. -23. -36. -37. -34. -30. -28. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 8. 0. -6. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -11. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -27. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -12. -36. -63.-102.-122.-134.-141.-146.-155.-162.-165. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##