* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 96 88 78 58 44 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 102 96 88 78 58 44 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 102 95 87 77 60 47 37 30 25 20 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 23 27 23 22 18 25 28 28 23 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 5 10 8 9 1 2 4 16 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 222 227 235 242 255 271 273 254 253 272 320 309 266 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 133 133 131 128 125 120 114 106 89 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 45 45 43 46 50 53 56 51 39 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 29 30 29 26 24 22 22 20 20 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 85 80 66 44 18 -14 -32 -24 -2 -37 -95 200 MB DIV 78 58 29 1 -58 -64 0 31 21 -4 -16 -10 1 700-850 TADV 5 3 6 8 13 15 18 11 11 5 -5 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 950 946 949 959 974 1060 1163 1308 1513 1738 1769 1639 1596 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.5 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.6 27.0 29.3 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.1 145.9 145.7 145.5 144.7 143.9 142.8 141.1 139.2 137.3 137.4 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -8. -10. -14. -14. -17. -18. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -27. -47. -61. -73. -80. -90.-100.-114.-122. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##