* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 175 166 147 124 104 67 49 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 175 141 95 65 49 34 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 175 139 93 63 47 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 19 28 34 38 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 196 210 231 235 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.3 30.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 174 171 168 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 60 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 19 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 93 110 125 108 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 101 81 66 93 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -10 5 8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 127 -30 -93 -238 -386 -299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.7 21.1 22.7 24.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 104.8 104.3 103.4 102.4 100.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 45 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 175 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -15. -21. -36. -50. -61. -70. -81. -88. -93. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -11. -21. -30. -47. -48. -46. -42. -40. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -8. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -28. -51. -71.-108.-126.-137.-144.-153.-165.-174.-179. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##