* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 91 80 70 55 41 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 91 80 70 55 41 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 91 82 73 56 44 36 31 26 22 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 26 30 27 23 19 15 25 20 14 9 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 5 7 10 2 3 3 11 3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 234 232 240 257 264 272 254 258 257 292 290 279 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 134 133 132 129 126 123 120 115 111 110 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 48 50 47 45 47 49 47 49 47 39 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 26 25 22 22 20 19 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 84 86 76 56 42 31 -1 -31 -35 -11 -40 -65 -68 200 MB DIV 97 37 0 -55 -70 -46 30 23 0 -16 -21 -10 2 700-850 TADV 3 7 11 12 16 16 13 10 6 5 -3 1 6 LAND (KM) 961 976 998 1021 1047 1118 1226 1334 1461 1609 1771 1838 1824 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.5 20.0 21.1 22.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.2 26.7 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.9 145.6 145.3 145.1 144.8 144.2 143.4 142.6 141.6 140.4 139.1 138.6 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -45. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -15. -17. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -25. -35. -50. -64. -71. -79. -86. -95.-103.-107. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##