* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 121 103 89 77 53 44 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 140 95 65 49 39 31 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 140 95 64 47 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 27 30 38 50 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 0 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 213 228 237 231 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 171 168 163 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 65 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 106 119 112 75 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 85 71 109 101 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -3 4 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -18 -114 -234 -392 -350 -179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 21.1 22.5 24.0 25.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 104.1 103.3 102.2 101.1 99.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 175 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -17. -26. -34. -41. -49. -55. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -22. -31. -49. -52. -53. -53. -55. -59. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -11. -15. -16. -13. -6. 0. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -19. -37. -51. -63. -87. -96.-105.-113.-125.-137.-147.-153. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##