* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 88 78 67 51 40 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 99 88 78 67 51 40 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 90 80 70 54 42 34 27 22 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 30 29 25 19 19 15 16 9 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 5 4 8 11 17 11 12 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 236 243 257 268 266 275 253 256 297 333 288 305 283 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 132 130 128 125 122 119 114 114 114 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 42 41 45 48 47 46 41 35 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 29 30 27 27 24 21 19 16 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 89 76 73 53 51 32 8 3 16 7 -18 -41 -52 200 MB DIV 47 3 -38 -52 -43 1 30 -7 -19 -28 -15 -11 -11 700-850 TADV 4 10 19 24 18 18 8 6 2 0 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 953 971 994 1022 1053 1131 1224 1350 1507 1641 1727 1735 1693 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 145.8 145.6 145.3 145.1 144.8 144.2 143.5 142.5 141.2 140.1 139.4 139.4 139.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -42. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -17. -21. -26. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -27. -38. -54. -65. -76. -83. -93.-102.-108.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##