* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 87 76 67 49 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 97 87 76 67 49 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 98 89 79 70 53 42 33 28 22 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 29 25 22 17 22 18 15 7 11 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 5 5 9 6 18 9 16 5 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 245 259 272 274 272 266 239 280 300 317 267 290 286 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 132 131 129 127 123 119 114 117 118 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.9 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 41 45 48 49 49 45 36 33 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 29 28 28 24 24 21 19 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 70 51 54 47 9 3 -6 9 -11 -30 -31 -50 200 MB DIV 10 -26 -43 -41 -40 51 36 -33 -17 -10 -11 -6 -13 700-850 TADV 9 18 21 17 17 15 10 9 0 1 5 9 7 LAND (KM) 977 1010 1047 1087 1130 1223 1363 1532 1672 1725 1668 1602 1552 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.3 23.4 24.4 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.7 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 145.2 144.8 144.5 144.1 143.4 142.3 140.9 139.7 139.3 139.9 140.7 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 4 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -43. -47. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -10. -11. -16. -18. -22. -26. -27. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -29. -38. -56. -66. -77. -86. -95.-103.-108.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##