* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 77 68 60 47 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 86 77 68 60 47 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 79 71 62 48 39 32 26 21 18 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 22 17 14 21 18 14 6 5 9 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 13 15 11 12 14 14 1 -6 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 260 271 270 261 268 250 257 261 319 233 270 231 249 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 132 131 129 124 121 118 116 117 119 120 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 47 48 51 43 41 36 29 30 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 29 28 27 24 25 21 20 15 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 73 46 48 42 18 15 22 19 16 -18 -38 -44 -42 200 MB DIV -18 -17 -21 -21 7 65 0 -10 -33 -6 -16 -4 7 700-850 TADV 22 26 17 17 20 13 7 2 -2 -2 8 11 7 LAND (KM) 1005 1053 1104 1146 1190 1293 1441 1572 1672 1691 1624 1445 1175 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.7 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.2 26.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.2 144.8 144.3 144.0 143.6 142.8 141.7 140.6 139.7 139.7 140.7 142.7 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 5 3 3 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -30. -35. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. -9. -9. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -14. -15. -23. -28. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -27. -35. -48. -56. -65. -71. -82. -90. -93. -94. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##