* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 67 57 51 38 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 75 67 57 51 38 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 76 68 60 52 40 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 21 20 20 22 29 17 22 10 14 14 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 13 13 11 14 16 15 1 -4 -6 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 278 275 279 266 252 264 313 328 284 300 301 253 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 129 129 126 121 115 112 113 115 114 113 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 51 53 49 46 41 30 27 26 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 24 24 22 21 17 14 11 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 43 18 8 5 25 14 -16 -47 -62 -75 -89 200 MB DIV -33 -19 -26 2 41 50 -18 -29 -20 -20 -19 -21 -4 700-850 TADV 27 22 17 18 15 10 14 -4 -6 -4 -4 -12 -4 LAND (KM) 1080 1111 1145 1198 1254 1444 1657 1810 1864 1820 1648 1542 1481 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.7 24.1 25.2 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.5 144.3 144.0 143.6 143.2 141.7 139.9 138.6 138.1 138.8 140.7 141.9 142.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 10 8 6 2 6 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -4. -8. -9. -16. -20. -23. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -28. -34. -47. -54. -67. -76. -82. -90. -95. -94. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##