* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 66 58 51 44 33 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 73 66 58 51 44 33 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 73 65 58 51 41 33 26 22 19 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 20 28 20 15 15 11 14 14 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 14 11 12 9 20 14 -1 -2 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 266 278 283 260 254 268 279 321 257 269 261 265 249 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.9 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 130 128 124 120 115 112 117 123 122 119 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 55 50 44 39 28 20 19 17 16 13 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 25 24 25 22 21 20 21 18 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 27 13 20 36 41 27 -57 -53 -66 -65 -65 200 MB DIV -11 -12 6 59 58 22 -27 -20 -1 -28 -24 -18 0 700-850 TADV 18 18 22 24 22 10 -11 -11 -10 -2 3 2 12 LAND (KM) 1125 1168 1214 1278 1344 1538 1749 1910 1854 1838 1539 1349 1251 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.3 26.0 25.1 24.8 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.1 143.8 143.4 142.9 142.4 140.8 138.9 137.5 137.1 138.3 141.1 143.0 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 5 2 9 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -14. -18. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -29. -36. -47. -55. -58. -61. -69. -75. -81. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##