* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 66 59 55 44 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 66 59 55 44 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 69 62 56 44 35 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 27 26 16 24 18 19 18 17 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 10 14 9 12 26 4 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 277 285 270 254 257 247 306 319 274 273 284 282 260 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.3 24.2 24.4 24.9 25.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 129 127 125 120 112 104 102 104 112 124 130 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -49.8 -49.5 -50.0 -50.7 -51.2 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 51 46 42 34 24 17 15 11 11 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 24 26 24 22 22 22 21 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 49 28 15 28 26 50 43 15 -68 -76 -64 -57 -35 200 MB DIV -19 17 65 66 55 13 -32 -14 -11 -26 -36 -23 -4 700-850 TADV 20 23 24 24 23 13 -10 -13 -19 -7 -3 5 4 LAND (KM) 1162 1238 1316 1405 1496 1780 1673 1494 1485 1515 1640 1881 1341 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.7 27.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.0 25.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.8 143.2 142.6 141.9 141.2 138.8 136.4 134.7 133.6 133.4 134.2 137.5 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 13 11 6 4 4 11 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -18. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -21. -25. -36. -49. -56. -61. -68. -80. -85. -87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##