* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 59 53 41 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 59 53 41 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 61 56 51 41 32 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 30 26 22 25 18 16 18 15 18 15 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 8 6 4 26 6 0 -2 -4 -3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 249 240 243 230 247 293 333 276 283 278 270 250 255 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.3 24.6 23.9 23.7 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 122 118 110 100 96 101 106 111 118 121 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -51.0 -51.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 53 49 45 42 39 27 17 15 10 7 8 8 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 27 28 25 22 20 17 14 8 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 17 37 23 21 -13 -31 -81 -85 -70 -53 -35 200 MB DIV 77 84 56 35 -2 -12 -20 -25 -24 -25 -24 -19 7 700-850 TADV 23 21 9 0 -1 -4 -13 -11 13 3 14 12 19 LAND (KM) 1282 1407 1533 1680 1826 1611 1375 1311 1427 1546 1654 1822 1813 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.9 28.9 28.9 28.0 26.8 25.8 25.2 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 143.0 142.0 141.0 139.8 138.6 136.0 133.8 133.0 133.2 133.7 134.2 135.8 138.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 12 7 2 6 6 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -24. -30. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -17. -29. -41. -50. -58. -70. -80. -88. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##