* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 45 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 45 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 52 46 41 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 20 26 26 26 17 20 18 18 11 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 10 6 18 19 4 0 0 -4 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 250 262 242 249 275 319 309 303 295 315 283 251 252 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.3 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 119 116 106 99 97 99 103 109 120 130 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -50.2 -50.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 51 47 42 38 40 34 25 21 16 10 11 13 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 21 20 16 11 8 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 19 31 22 15 15 -6 -38 -67 -57 -52 -42 -27 200 MB DIV 88 53 53 11 -4 -9 -23 -30 -32 -38 -33 -19 -1 700-850 TADV 20 19 4 2 -3 -2 -10 -8 -9 -20 -13 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1363 1507 1651 1807 1781 1494 1403 1368 1404 1468 1556 1828 1625 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 26.8 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 142.4 141.2 140.0 138.7 137.3 134.7 132.9 132.3 132.5 132.8 133.2 135.7 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 10 5 1 3 4 8 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -18. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -28. -40. -54. -67. -73. -79. -83. -87. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##