* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 36 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 37 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 18 22 25 23 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 11 15 24 9 -1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 270 254 283 303 330 294 302 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.3 24.0 24.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 118 115 111 105 100 107 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -50.7 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 39 38 38 38 28 22 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 23 20 20 18 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 29 18 28 3 -34 -47 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 50 6 -13 -17 -21 -34 -30 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 5 1 -2 -10 -5 -14 -3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1442 1591 1740 1856 1715 1555 1432 1551 1811 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.8 27.8 26.6 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.8 140.6 139.3 138.0 136.7 134.6 133.1 133.6 135.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 11 9 4 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -11. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -22. -28. -40. -53. -62. -64. -66. -71. -75. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##