* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 40 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 27 26 26 16 17 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 19 25 20 10 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 266 283 300 316 307 307 299 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.0 24.3 24.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 115 112 107 100 103 111 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 38 39 34 24 20 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 18 17 14 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 16 20 33 27 -2 -22 -44 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 11 -7 1 -2 -18 -37 -29 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 3 -7 -12 -12 -13 -11 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1698 1815 1875 1729 1583 1430 1475 1639 1859 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.6 27.7 26.7 25.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.5 138.5 137.5 136.2 134.8 133.0 132.7 134.0 136.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 11 5 5 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -19. -22. -21. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -23. -31. -46. -57. -63. -66. -69. -74. -80. -84. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##