* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 35 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 32 33 30 24 19 15 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 19 17 11 4 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 279 300 316 319 302 314 310 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.5 24.2 23.8 24.0 24.6 25.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 109 105 99 100 108 117 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -50.7 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 38 34 29 22 21 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 17 16 13 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 29 31 25 -2 -39 -68 -72 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -3 -1 -6 -34 -26 -35 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 -5 -9 -12 -11 -16 -12 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1866 1793 1639 1524 1409 1435 1590 1840 1711 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.5 27.9 28.3 27.5 26.5 25.4 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 136.7 135.4 134.3 133.2 132.9 134.0 136.2 139.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 6 5 9 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -15. -19. -19. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -16. -15. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -21. -31. -48. -60. -69. -71. -75. -82. -87. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##