* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 29 22 18 18 13 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 21 17 13 11 -1 -2 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 291 308 311 293 293 293 306 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.7 25.4 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 106 104 100 110 118 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -50.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 34 29 23 19 22 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 13 11 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 30 23 -8 -44 -66 -72 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 0 0 -3 -17 -24 -27 -19 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -4 -5 -7 -9 -10 -11 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1819 1697 1575 1520 1464 1596 1876 1714 1454 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.3 25.1 24.3 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.6 135.5 134.4 133.8 133.1 133.9 136.4 139.0 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 6 3 9 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -14. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -29. -43. -53. -60. -61. -65. -70. -75. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##