* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 11/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 25 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 25 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 24 20 23 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 16 22 36 46 56 71 85 89 85 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 4 5 7 4 -10 -21 -27 -23 -10 SHEAR DIR 219 194 202 211 207 210 233 244 248 253 258 274 278 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.1 29.1 29.3 28.0 25.7 23.6 21.5 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 162 161 156 156 159 147 123 101 78 63 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 47 39 33 30 32 39 47 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 8 6 -3 -5 -6 -6 18 16 -84 -121 -137 200 MB DIV 36 47 42 14 13 22 22 18 16 16 0 8 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 0 -1 2 17 29 34 33 24 LAND (KM) 760 688 620 571 524 346 162 37 -269 -596 -496 -427 -501 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.7 19.8 21.9 24.0 26.7 29.4 31.5 32.9 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.0 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.6 108.8 107.7 106.1 103.1 100.1 96.9 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 11 11 14 17 18 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 29 34 35 24 41 30 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 32. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -11. -25. -42. -59. -74. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -15. -26. -38. -49. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 11/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 11/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##