* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 11/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 26 23 20 23 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 19 24 37 50 56 70 80 88 76 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 5 7 4 2 -11 -16 -18 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 174 181 198 204 207 221 241 245 250 257 262 274 279 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.9 29.3 27.9 26.0 24.3 22.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 161 160 154 154 159 146 126 108 91 79 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 49 46 39 35 34 35 45 55 46 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 10 16 4 8 -9 -16 -1 21 7 -62 -91 -111 200 MB DIV 42 32 21 0 7 10 25 3 6 7 -17 -24 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 -2 4 19 11 1 2 LAND (KM) 721 680 644 600 559 355 123 37 -306 -542 -416 -302 -303 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.7 19.7 22.0 24.2 26.6 28.8 30.7 31.8 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.2 110.1 109.3 107.9 105.6 102.7 99.9 96.5 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 11 12 14 16 16 15 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 29 33 35 23 30 29 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -13. -26. -43. -59. -71. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -12. -24. -36. -46. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 11/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 11/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##