* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 11/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 27 21 18 17 20 27 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 27 21 18 17 20 23 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 26 25 23 22 21 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 14 12 15 26 25 29 28 24 12 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -4 1 0 3 4 3 4 6 7 SHEAR DIR 208 226 247 252 254 257 262 294 311 329 333 279 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 143 137 140 142 144 143 144 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 134 130 126 117 120 123 126 128 131 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 7 5 4 3 7 8 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 69 70 63 58 50 47 41 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -13 -12 19 30 13 -29 -49 -54 -53 -29 -19 200 MB DIV 19 9 4 21 38 20 -10 -12 -47 -52 -33 -11 6 700-850 TADV 8 11 5 2 5 0 0 1 2 0 -3 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 44 141 237 295 356 380 361 314 268 183 38 -138 -263 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.2 20.7 20.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.8 92.6 93.1 93.5 93.7 93.8 94.2 94.6 95.3 96.6 98.5 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 5 1 2 3 3 5 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 20 21 24 26 26 24 23 23 27 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. -10. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. -4. -7. -8. -5. 2. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 11/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 11/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 11/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)