* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 11/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 26 29 33 46 51 52 59 39 30 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 5 4 2 5 3 0 5 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 257 255 252 248 245 270 298 310 334 341 338 319 270 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 133 131 130 127 125 128 129 133 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 117 115 114 112 113 110 107 110 112 117 119 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 2 0 2 1 5 7 9 10 9 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 65 58 51 46 38 33 28 27 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 54 51 45 44 7 -31 -45 -64 -65 -67 -54 -62 200 MB DIV 42 61 46 35 3 10 -21 -59 -88 -90 -44 -12 -16 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 1 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 320 321 310 332 352 423 452 422 392 348 345 430 347 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.6 25.2 25.3 24.6 24.0 23.5 23.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.6 94.7 94.3 94.0 93.2 92.1 90.8 90.6 91.3 92.3 93.5 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 31 30 25 16 8 14 21 23 20 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 924 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 0. -10. -22. -31. -35. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -15. -25. -33. -32. -26. -24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 11/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 11/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 11/07/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)