* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 11/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 45 51 54 56 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 45 51 54 56 58 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 36 40 44 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 10 10 6 8 12 16 11 11 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 1 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 241 253 272 270 246 287 209 212 212 320 16 18 95 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 156 153 144 139 133 128 121 121 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 152 147 143 132 124 116 112 106 106 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 62 64 63 68 63 47 34 25 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 6 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -16 -25 -42 -39 -52 -66 -58 -34 -52 -58 -96 -95 200 MB DIV 16 26 13 2 -17 40 69 49 -5 -38 -44 -31 -16 700-850 TADV 9 9 5 2 0 4 4 4 2 -4 -21 -6 -12 LAND (KM) 69 54 83 150 211 241 308 287 368 550 823 894 842 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.8 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 28.3 28.5 27.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.0 70.4 71.5 72.7 75.0 76.6 77.3 76.4 74.7 71.9 70.0 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 8 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 79 61 63 16 65 48 97 49 36 16 10 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 11/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)