* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 11/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 32 40 46 49 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 32 40 46 49 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 39 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 10 9 4 10 17 17 11 13 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 3 2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 255 246 231 268 201 211 192 238 325 305 346 325 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.4 26.0 25.6 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 151 148 141 134 127 118 116 113 121 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 147 142 138 128 118 111 104 105 103 110 116 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.9 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 63 62 63 67 56 38 30 26 23 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -30 -44 -51 -57 -69 -68 -22 -23 -42 -64 -61 -60 200 MB DIV 22 15 6 -13 -7 58 71 40 -10 -17 -41 -25 -23 700-850 TADV 11 10 2 -3 5 6 4 10 8 -1 -5 3 -6 LAND (KM) 100 103 178 243 274 338 327 347 550 668 967 1235 1239 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.7 24.2 26.0 27.8 29.2 30.2 30.1 29.4 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.6 70.9 72.1 73.4 75.5 76.9 76.7 75.0 71.9 67.7 63.6 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 9 12 16 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 59 59 69 26 62 63 58 37 14 1 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 11/08/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)