* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 11/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 49 53 55 55 56 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 49 53 55 55 56 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 48 50 53 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 9 5 7 10 17 11 8 17 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 248 235 267 309 205 198 199 310 315 332 320 309 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.3 26.2 25.7 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 153 148 144 138 132 126 118 118 113 123 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 146 144 138 133 124 115 111 105 106 102 111 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 61 62 66 62 47 32 25 24 22 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -39 -44 -55 -55 -76 -59 -24 -32 -58 -70 -63 -59 200 MB DIV 17 7 -14 -5 27 66 59 -1 -34 -30 -43 -11 0 700-850 TADV 9 2 -2 4 5 4 4 8 2 -4 -3 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 96 161 222 240 252 322 263 371 596 758 1032 1189 1220 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.7 26.4 28.0 29.1 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.4 72.6 73.8 75.0 76.7 77.5 76.5 74.5 71.0 67.3 63.7 60.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 10 13 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 60 39 58 47 38 90 31 36 15 0 0 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 33. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 11/08/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)