* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 11/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 54 55 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 54 55 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 50 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 9 5 12 17 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 240 263 293 297 237 221 257 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.5 25.5 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 143 140 136 130 121 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 135 131 128 123 116 109 105 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 58 61 65 55 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -54 -64 -64 -58 -21 16 47 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 2 1 32 51 72 59 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 8 8 5 10 18 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 336 352 397 427 350 483 439 715 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 12 17 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 53 64 45 47 40 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 24. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 11/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 11/08/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)