* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122015 11/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 47 52 56 58 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 47 52 56 58 60 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 38 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 9 13 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 293 258 241 236 230 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 133 128 118 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 127 121 116 109 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 69 67 60 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -59 -70 -50 -14 39 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 30 49 60 62 65 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 11 6 3 8 24 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 310 354 405 439 410 526 630 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.1 24.9 26.3 27.6 30.6 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.7 74.6 75.5 75.8 76.0 73.9 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 14 14 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 30 18 35 37 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 TWELVE 11/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 TWELVE 11/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 TWELVE 11/09/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)