* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 58 61 64 65 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 58 61 64 65 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 51 53 58 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 11 15 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 252 231 231 218 233 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 25.8 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 131 129 117 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 122 118 117 109 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 65 61 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -36 -6 22 53 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 39 52 66 64 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 3 7 8 10 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 354 409 357 348 388 425 676 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.1 26.0 27.4 28.7 31.9 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 75.7 76.6 76.6 76.6 73.5 68.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 13 16 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 34 54 39 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/09/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)