* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 62 69 73 71 62 55 53 47 37 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 62 69 73 71 62 55 53 47 37 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 62 65 68 61 48 40 40 45 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 26 32 31 42 41 43 45 42 36 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 4 5 17 8 3 0 3 11 14 18 SHEAR DIR 228 233 240 266 268 278 270 257 263 241 226 223 227 SST (C) 26.5 25.8 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.5 23.2 17.2 13.6 15.7 14.8 11.4 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 111 111 110 107 96 72 68 74 74 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 104 106 105 99 85 67 65 70 71 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -56.1 -57.8 -57.8 -57.1 -55.9 -56.8 -56.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 57 51 50 55 63 68 57 44 55 63 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 13 16 26 30 30 24 21 23 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 26 42 75 87 107 131 181 197 160 124 128 91 178 200 MB DIV 62 77 74 94 116 127 94 9 34 23 26 27 39 700-850 TADV 14 17 10 28 53 148 122 -22 -26 -43 -14 -27 -54 LAND (KM) 517 509 518 732 861 883 706 570 551 801 1340 1322 977 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 31.0 32.5 33.9 35.3 37.9 40.4 42.3 43.6 45.1 47.1 50.6 55.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 73.5 71.5 68.1 64.8 57.0 51.9 49.4 47.6 43.0 35.0 29.2 25.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 27 31 32 28 18 11 14 24 27 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 16 CX,CY: 7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 11. 16. 16. 9. 7. 8. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 14. 18. 16. 7. 0. -2. -8. -18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)