* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 64 66 71 74 67 62 55 47 34 25 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 64 66 71 74 67 62 55 47 34 25 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 65 67 68 66 54 42 38 41 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 31 32 35 45 37 42 35 32 54 58 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 6 13 11 7 -1 0 3 15 22 11 SHEAR DIR 230 241 260 268 275 285 267 267 258 241 222 224 224 SST (C) 25.9 24.9 24.9 24.7 24.2 24.5 19.4 16.9 18.8 17.4 11.7 9.8 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 110 111 110 106 105 78 71 78 79 72 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 104 106 106 100 94 71 66 72 75 71 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -57.2 -57.8 -57.7 -56.3 -55.7 -54.9 -52.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 56 61 65 64 42 47 53 50 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 16 21 29 33 27 25 22 21 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 93 114 116 165 212 207 157 125 153 139 195 200 MB DIV 72 88 103 122 145 132 48 23 14 6 14 11 8 700-850 TADV 9 16 31 72 138 180 62 -22 -42 -30 -234 -154 -55 LAND (KM) 462 514 677 841 848 800 571 591 754 1020 1507 1018 743 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.8 34.4 35.6 36.8 39.5 41.8 42.4 42.5 44.8 50.1 54.2 57.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 71.3 68.6 64.6 60.7 54.0 50.9 48.7 45.6 40.2 32.3 25.6 20.0 STM SPEED (KT) 24 28 31 34 32 22 12 10 16 30 33 26 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 21 CX,CY: 12/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 19. 14. 11. 8. 6. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 7. 2. -5. -13. -26. -35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)