* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 65 67 71 71 63 58 53 45 37 30 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 65 67 71 71 63 58 53 45 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 66 66 58 44 38 38 41 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 33 34 46 46 43 39 28 37 46 40 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 14 15 5 1 0 0 10 16 17 5 SHEAR DIR 242 263 267 268 270 267 259 266 247 238 241 237 255 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.5 20.4 16.1 15.9 18.3 15.4 11.2 10.4 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 110 109 107 82 70 72 78 75 71 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 105 105 99 74 65 68 73 72 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -58.4 -57.8 -57.1 -56.0 -55.5 -53.9 -50.5 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 59 64 68 70 48 42 52 53 50 49 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 17 22 27 31 30 25 22 21 21 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 58 80 109 116 120 186 207 177 151 147 158 198 240 200 MB DIV 83 120 131 153 123 103 20 12 28 -1 14 20 14 700-850 TADV 26 37 65 164 165 134 -1 -20 6 21 39 -25 -22 LAND (KM) 496 745 824 819 839 599 511 637 967 1340 1275 825 730 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.6 36.0 37.4 38.8 41.5 42.7 43.1 43.7 46.1 50.8 55.7 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 67.8 64.3 60.0 55.8 51.1 49.9 46.8 41.5 35.3 28.6 22.5 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 30 32 35 37 29 15 9 16 22 29 31 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 28 CX,CY: 21/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 20. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 10. 16. 17. 12. 9. 8. 7. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 11. 3. -2. -7. -15. -23. -30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)