* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 64 62 65 62 55 52 43 35 27 18 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 64 62 65 62 55 52 43 35 27 18 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 61 60 57 46 36 33 35 37 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 36 42 51 50 44 43 34 30 39 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 13 14 11 3 0 2 3 9 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 266 263 266 274 258 267 254 232 226 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.3 24.7 24.4 22.1 15.0 14.6 17.5 16.2 13.2 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 110 107 91 68 68 76 75 72 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 104 100 83 64 65 71 72 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -57.9 -58.6 -57.9 -56.7 -56.3 -55.9 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 62 64 65 70 64 42 47 55 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 18 23 28 29 32 28 24 23 20 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 95 103 116 115 161 178 143 137 113 138 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 145 150 125 105 59 25 20 23 20 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 46 77 165 177 151 55 0 -10 -21 -19 -52 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 750 785 798 775 638 495 553 790 1212 1484 978 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 36.6 38.0 39.5 41.0 43.0 43.2 43.9 45.6 48.6 52.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 63.5 59.4 55.8 52.1 49.6 48.1 43.8 37.2 30.5 24.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 36 34 32 22 9 11 20 26 27 27 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 33 CX,CY: 25/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 25. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 9. 10. 16. 15. 11. 10. 6. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 2. 5. 2. -5. -8. -17. -25. -33. -42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)