* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 63 63 62 57 56 55 49 40 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 65 63 63 63 62 57 56 55 49 40 31 23 16 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 60 56 50 41 40 45 48 48 45 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 48 44 40 34 29 17 20 40 44 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 11 13 4 4 0 3 5 13 16 19 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 273 268 261 248 264 251 222 232 244 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.5 23.8 21.7 19.2 19.8 18.4 14.8 11.7 11.7 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 100 87 78 81 79 75 72 70 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 97 89 77 71 73 74 72 70 68 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.3 -57.1 -58.4 -59.0 -58.3 -57.8 -57.5 -56.2 -53.3 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 69 71 68 51 49 53 51 49 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 33 32 26 24 24 23 23 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 106 133 172 173 201 168 137 99 148 170 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 155 115 124 111 86 55 33 43 37 43 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 143 155 150 92 32 -5 -14 -33 -2 3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 880 848 723 668 646 800 1037 1438 1085 589 470 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.9 40.2 40.9 41.6 41.9 43.3 46.4 50.7 54.6 57.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 55.4 52.6 50.9 49.2 45.6 40.8 33.9 25.8 19.0 14.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 25 20 15 14 16 24 32 31 24 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 38 CX,CY: 34/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 27. 26. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -8. -9. -10. -16. -25. -34. -42. -49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED