* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 56 55 52 49 48 43 39 37 34 29 27 V (KT) LAND 60 56 56 55 52 49 48 43 39 37 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 52 48 43 37 38 42 47 52 51 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 43 40 33 35 25 25 40 49 45 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 10 7 0 1 0 8 14 16 15 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 271 262 246 246 256 232 226 235 240 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.4 20.2 18.7 18.4 19.1 15.7 12.0 11.4 10.7 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 97 82 76 76 80 75 73 71 67 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 87 74 70 70 74 72 71 69 65 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.5 -58.6 -58.9 -58.8 -58.9 -58.6 -57.7 -55.0 -53.5 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 69 71 70 65 55 55 58 56 59 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 31 32 29 24 20 18 19 22 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 125 154 161 165 203 147 76 111 137 161 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 129 110 86 55 29 65 18 49 45 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 149 120 94 34 -4 -27 -51 -109 -151 -65 24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 715 652 672 718 946 1266 1323 705 488 312 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.3 41.3 41.8 42.2 43.1 45.8 49.9 54.5 57.5 58.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.3 52.1 49.9 48.3 46.6 42.2 36.4 28.9 20.8 14.8 11.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 20 16 13 15 21 29 33 28 17 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 37 CX,CY: 34/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -8. -8. -5. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -21. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. -31. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/12/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)