* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 55 53 51 49 50 47 43 43 42 40 41 V (KT) LAND 60 56 55 53 51 49 50 47 43 43 42 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 51 47 44 41 45 50 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 37 33 37 33 19 19 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 10 10 0 2 0 2 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 264 241 244 253 227 210 218 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 20.7 18.6 18.7 19.3 17.9 14.4 11.4 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 83 77 76 79 78 74 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 75 70 69 72 73 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -58.3 -58.8 -58.9 -58.6 -58.2 -58.2 -56.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 72 71 64 56 53 58 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 28 25 22 20 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 165 169 180 198 194 146 107 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 105 102 77 48 42 49 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 126 88 23 -12 -23 -53 -70 -108 -122 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 682 683 736 805 1066 1472 1066 546 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 41.1 41.8 42.2 42.5 44.0 46.9 51.2 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.6 49.8 47.9 46.3 44.8 40.0 33.3 25.7 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 16 14 12 15 23 30 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -13. -17. -17. -18. -20. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/12/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)